Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
